Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

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Ṁ5202

2029

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This market is conditional on Trump getting elected in 2024.

This market is intended to gauge the chance Trump makes credible progress on this goal which he allegedly talked about in a GOP meeting. I will consider credible progress as reducing personal income tax share of total USG revenue to 30% or less and increasing tariffs share to 20% or more by the end of his term. I will also accept legislation passed and signed into law that the CBO forecasts will accomplish the above goals by 2030.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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Replacing income taxes with tariffs seems unlikely due to economic complexities and potential global trade impacts. Tariffs might burden consumers indirectly. Instead, understanding how to plan your taxes https://rates.fm/taxes/ effectively within current frameworks is more practical for managing financial responsibilities and navigating changes.

10mo

this is pretty much impossible

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

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