Background
During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump granted 237 acts of clemency, which was among the lowest in recent history. For comparison, Barack Obama granted 1,927 acts of clemency over eight years, with a substantial portion occurring in a single term. Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record for most pardons in a four-year period, having granted over 2,800 pardons during his first term (1933-1937).
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND grants more pardons and commutations combined during his second term (2025-2029) than any other U.S. president has granted during any single four-year term. The market will resolve NO if:
Trump does not win the 2024 election, OR
Trump wins but does not exceed the historical record for pardons/commutations in a four-year term
The count will include both pardons and commutations, consistent with the Department of Justice's reporting of clemency statistics. Only acts of clemency granted during the four-year term will be counted, not those promised or announced but not officially granted.
Considerations
Trump's first-term clemency pattern was notably different from most presidents, with a large portion of his pardons and commutations granted in his final days in office. His total of 237 acts of clemency over four years was significantly lower than the historical average for modern presidents.
1,000
1.00@KimberlyWilberLIgt You are aware that he will be listed twice on the list of presidents? Trump 45 and Trump 47. So yes, he can and soon will be two separate presidents, though not at the same time. In fact, as written each this question treats each presidential term as a stand alone data point. But it is irrelevant because the only one that matters is the one with the most pardons and that is FDR with 2800 during his first term.
@datachef Shouldn’t Jimmy Carter’s blanket pardon for everyone who evaded the Vietnam draft count? That was over 200,000 people
@KimberlyWilberLIgt were 200k people convicted of draft dodging? Or was it automatically charged when you don’t show up to boot camp? Or were those people facing potential charges?
@datachef https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/16/ford-amnesty-vietnam-deserters-815747 says:
In all, about 100,000 Americans went abroad in the late 1960s and early ‘70s to avoid being called up. Some studies show that as many as 9 in 10 evaders had crossed the northern border into Canada, where after some initial hesitancy they could remain as legal immigrants. Veterans groups promptly criticized Carter’s action.
Before Carter issued his pardon, those who had fled to Canada faced jail terms if they returned to the United States. An estimated 50,000 draft dodgers chose to settle permanently in Canada.
Idk if they were specifically convictions but jail time seems involved. Up to you if you want to count that of course, but this market is heavily overvalued if so, heh :)