This market resolves YES if, at the conclusion of the 2024/2025 Premier League season, Arsenal would have won the title had they won all of their remaining games from the time this market opened.
It is not dependent on Arsenal’s actual performance, only on whether winning out from that point onward would have been enough to finish first in the table.
The market resolves NO if, even with a perfect run-in, Arsenal could not have surpassed the eventual champions’ final point total. It also resolves NO if they actually win the title
This is a retrospective hypothetical, settled based on final league standings.
Remaining matches:
Brentford (H) – Sat, Apr 12, 2025
Ipswich (A) – Sun, Apr 20, 2025
Crystal Palace (H) – Wed, Apr 23, 2025
Bournemouth (H) – Sat, May 3, 2025
Liverpool (A) – Sun, May 11, 2025
Newcastle (H) – Sun, May 18, 2025
Southampton (A) - Sun, May 25 2025
I'll resolve the market at the earliest possible opportunity
Update 2025-04-27 (PST): - Early NO resolution: The market resolves NO immediately once Liverpool hit 84 points, as Arsenal’s maximum possible points cannot surpass this total. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A specific condition for a NO resolution (related to Liverpool's points total making it impossible for Arsenal to win the title even with a perfect run-in from market open) has been clarified:
Liverpool must achieve at least a draw in their final game of the season for this particular NO resolution path to be fulfilled.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the condition for a NO resolution path concerning Liverpool's point total, especially considering a head-to-head match with Arsenal played after the market opened:
Arsenal's hypothetical maximum points (if they won all remaining games from market open) is a key figure (e.g., 83 points, based on 62 starting points before their 7 remaining games; the creator will verify this initial data).
If Liverpool's actual point total includes a point from a draw against Arsenal (in a match played after this market opened), that point is discounted for Liverpool in the hypothetical scenario where Arsenal won all their games.
If Arsenal's hypothetical maximum points and Liverpool's adjusted hypothetical points are equal (e.g., both at 83 points), Arsenal could still hypothetically win the title on goal difference. This would not qualify for this specific NO resolution condition.
For this NO resolution path to be met, Liverpool's adjusted hypothetical point total must be strictly greater than Arsenal's. For example, if Arsenal's hypothetical maximum is 83 points, Liverpool would need an actual total of 85 points (assuming they drew with Arsenal post-market open) to achieve an adjusted hypothetical total of 84 points, thereby clearly surpassing Arsenal.
1,000
1.00@dlin007 As Christopher Randles said below, the 1 point from the draw against Arsenal shouldn't count because Arsenal could've taken that away by winning. Liverpool need to reach 84 points without that draw, meaning they need to win their last match, not just draw
@dlin007 The market says it resolves yes if "Arsenal would have won the title if they won all of their remaining games from the time this market opened". Since the market opened, Liverpool and Arsenal have played one game against each other, which finished 2-2. If Arsenal had won every match, Liverpool would've had one less point, since they would have not gotten the one point from drawing this match. Thus, Liverpool need 85 points for this market to resolve NO, not just 84
@CollinMatthews ah, i see. you're probably correct, at least logically. Arsenal had 62 points before their Brentford game, so they would've ended up on 83 points if they won all 7 games. so if Liverpool only draw, they could still have won on 83 points and GD, but to be clear winners, they need 85 points. i'll double check the match and post it here.
@dlin007 If Liverpool only reach 84 by the actual result from match against Arsenal then Arsenal would have won If Arsenal won all their matches so that should resolve yes?