Resolves YES if Donald Trump is physically attacked or threatened between December 10, 2024 and January 20, 2025 (at 11:59 PM Eastern Time). Resolves N/A if Trump is attacked or threatened, but the person (or at least one of the people, if multiple) has ever made a bet on Manifold, or a close associate of someone else who has ever made a bet on Manifold. Resolves N/A if Trump dies before January 20, 2025 but not because he was physically attacked. Resolves NO on January 21, 2025 otherwise.
In 2024 alone, he has been threatened thrice: once on July 13, the second time on September 15, the third time on October 12. There are also many other prior incidents: see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_incidents_involving_Donald_Trump f
or a more complete list
EDIT: clarify resolution timeline
EDIT 2: add anti-assassination-market clause
1,000
1.00