Recently Trump has shared calls for his opponents to be subjected to "public military tribunals" and prosecuted for crimes that carry the death penalty (see, e.g., https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870). He has not yet, to my knowledge, directly called for anyone to be lynched, beaten, or otherwise physically attacked. Will he?
This question resolves YES if he calls for physical, extra-legal violence against a specific person or small, discrete group (such as the "J6 Committee" in the post above).
The call must be public, not reported from private conversations. But if he encourages or republishes the reporting in a way that indicates he endorses it, that may count.
Calling for someone to be prosecuted is not enough, even if the penalty upon conviction would be death. Calling for a "public military tribunal" is close, as this would in effect be extra-legal violence, but I think it falls just shy of the line. That may give you some idea about how I would resolve this question.
Obviously this must be a subjective resolution, and of course I will not trade in this market.
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1.00I was going through a bunch of Trump's comments glorifying/encouraging violence here:
He really often stays just within the lines of deniability. Would this resolve as yes (if it happened again)?:
If you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously, OK? Just knock the hell ... I promise you I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise," the future president said on Feb. 1, 2016.
@Siebe or what about retruthing the video in which there was an image of Biden tied up in the back of a truck?
@Siebe This comment--about the tomato--is exactly what I was thinking of. Yes, I would count that as a specific call for violence. Obviously it's a lot less serious than J6, but it's very clear cut: hurt that person physically if they throw a tomato. That would be extra-legal as it would not plausibly fall within the boundaries of self defense or any other legal defense I can think of (although I'm not that kind of lawyer).
The image of Biden in the truck is a harder call. I think I'd say no on that one, because it's so egregious--it's not a random guy tied up, it's POTUS. Harder to say he's actually calling for real action there. (It's analogous to Kathy Griffin holding up a fake, severed Trump head. I can't see either as an actual call to violence.)
@Bayesian Yes, excellent questions. I think for contingent calls it depends on whether the overall message calls for extra-legal violence. "If you see someone about to shoot me, knock them down" would clearly be a no; "if you see someone about to throw a tomato at me, beat them up" would be a yes.
It also depends on context, though. "If you see someone about to throw a tomato at me, skin them and make their families watch" would probably be a no, because it's too wild to be taken literally as a call to violence.
@Hyperlincoln okay thanks! I appreciate your elaborate clarifications :) Makes sense to me to only count the real specific calls for violence. Though now I regret having bought >35% and I'm annoyed at Trump's slipperiness!