Will more than 200 people vote for the candidate who receives the fewest votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
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Nov 6
47%
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When it comes to politics, everyone focuses on who receives the most votes (duh!), but nobody ever thinks about the little guy. What about the longshot bids for president? And I'm not talking about The Green Party or The Libertarian Party, whose candidates will probably receive at least 1 million votes.

I'm talking about the 2004 Prohibition Party candidate, Earl Dodge (140 votes). Or the 2016 Approval Voting Party candidate, Frank Atwood (337 votes). Or the various independent candidates who only show up on a ballot in one state. How many people are going to vote for The Biggest Loser in 2024?

This is how the market will resolve:

  1. The candidate has to appear on the ballot. There will undoubtedly be write-in candidates who only receive 1 vote.

  2. It has to be an actual candidate. It can't be a choice such as "None of these candidates"

  3. I'm going to use the official election results as issued by the Federal Election Commission. Then I'm going to choose the bottom entry in the table titled, "PRESIDENTIAL POPULAR VOTE SUMMARY FOR ALL CANDIDATES LISTED ON AT LEAST ONE STATE BALLOT"

  4. The question will resolve when the FEC releases the 2024 Federal Elections results PDF (probably December 2024).

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Looking back, based on the resolution criteria, this would resolve:

2020: YES (4 candidates less than 200 votes)

2016: NO

2012: NO

2008: YES (1)

2004: YES (1)

This is a good question, I think ~50% is a pretty fair price.