Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?

Mini

Ṁ200

2026

68%

chance

ALL

This market resolves to "yes" if Manifold has more daily active users than Metaculus at some point in 2025.

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1,000

and

1.00

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bought Ṁ15 NO

Based on search trends it seems this past year Manifold has been slightly behind Metaculus and isn't rapidly gaining ground

Meanwhile unfortunately Kalshi and Polymarket are still lolstomping us

@BTE hi dad

predicts YES

@jojomonsta What's that now?

Creator is inactive. Set close date to end of 2025.

predicts YES

Is there a way to see Metaculus's daily active users? For the record you can see our analytics here: https://manifold.markets/analytics

@ManifoldMarkets The number of predictions can be found here: https://metaculusextras.com/questions_chart For total users, apparently they started counting at 100,000 and increment sequentially. Trying different numbers in metaculus.org/accounts/profile/[number] seems to suggest they actually started at 100,011 with this being the first account: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100011/ A similar method (just trying numbers) shows that the most recent account is horotat at https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/127411/ This suggests that there are currently 27,400 total accounts. No idea where to find the total *active* users though. This isn't something that most organisations just display. Could we simply email them?

And I also no idea how to find the daily active users either. I was so busy answering, I forgot what the question was.

Without a doubt

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