Evacuation due to a risk of flooding counts.

Intentional and/or artificial flooding count.

The question covers the six years from January 1st 2024 to December 31st 2029 inclusive, UTC+1.

2024 borders apply for the duration, including the Caribbean Netherlands.

I'll arrive to the number by adding up the estimated number of displaced people for each incident, meaning if someone is temporarily displaced twice they will be counted twice.

The number will be somewhat imprecise, so I'll use my own judgment to determine a probability distribution and resolve to that, percentagewise. I don't expect to need this clause except near the break points, but because of this I won't bet on this market. I won't put too much effort in getting the number precisely right, but I will consider other people's estimates.

Between 1924 and 2024 there have been

• 0 incidents displacing more than 1 million people.

• 2 incidents displacing 100k-1 million people (1953, 1995).

• 5-6 incidents displacing 10k-100k people.

• 5-20 incidents displacing 1k-10k people.