Hmm, this might be almost exactly 50%. Strominger has only a year and a half to go before he would reach the age of 100, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html and some arithmetic suggests that the survival probability could be (1- 0.349177)^(171/365)*(1 - 0.366635) = 51.8% so I rounded it up to 52%. Also setting some limit orders.