Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA
1,000
1.00Thank you for playing in this interesting and useful market!
Feel welcome to bet on... 2030
https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2030-be-the-hottest-year-on-re
The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.15°C (0.27°F) more than the previous record set in 2016.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313
@parhizj Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in "NO" for the hopes that the percentage would unexpectedly have a brief lapse before jumping right back up to near-certainty, and I totally missed it earlier today, haha
@PaintspotInfez Maybe in the future you should put in 1 mana for (temporarily) faulty bettors.
@parhizj - That's mostly what the 1 Mana "NO" stock was for (I just phrased my previous message poorly haha) — but ouch I missed a great chance to sell that 1 singular "NO" stock during the "someone made it accidentally drop to ~75%" situation earlier today
The world's temperature soared from January to October 2023, breaking prior records by a startling 0.1°C above the previous record-holder, the same time in 2016. It is currently 1.43°C above the pre-industrial baseline period. October was the sixth consecutive month when temperatures around the world reached record highs, with monthly average temperature anomalies noticeably higher than historical averages. At 20.79°C, sea surface temperatures in the extrapolar oceans set a record for October. Although still in the early stages, El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific show less anomalies than the record-breaking episodes of 1997 and 2015. According to statistics, the data highlights the need for bold climate action, since 2023 is expected to be the warmest year on record, according to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S. Hydrological variables add another layer of complexity: although areas such as Iceland and Scandinavia had drier weather, above-average precipitation in Europe caused floods. Heavy storms outside of Europe resulted in wetter-than-average conditions in places like the Arabian Peninsula and Mexico. While the Arctic sea ice extent in October was 12% below the 1991-2020 average but above the record low observed in 2020, the Antarctic sea ice extent continued to be at record low levels for the sixth consecutive month, 11% below the October average. These statistics highlight the complex statistical indicators that require immediate attention and comprehensive climate action.
It is a well known fact that climate change is real and that one of its causes are greenhouse gas emissions. During the last couple of years, public conscience has risen in regards to this topic (an example being the UN Sustainable Goals). This could lead us to believe that the chances of future increases in temperature are less than what they are. However, it is important to consider that due to the nature of greenhouse gases, they stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. As a result, even if our collective conscience helped to reduce the emissions today, “atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to increase and remain elevated for hundreds of years”. (EPA, 2023)
This explains the table created by Statista (2023), which shows the linear increase in temperatures during the last decades. At the same time, one can infer that, at least for the next decade, temperatures will continue to rise.
Future of Climate Change | Climate Change Science | US EPA. (2023). Climatechange.chicago.gov. https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change#:~:text=Increases%20in%20average%20global%20temperatures
Land and ocean temperature anomalies worldwide 2020. (2023). Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/224893/land-and-ocean-temperature-anomalies-based-on-temperature-departure/
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that contributes to higher temperatures across the globe. The U.N. weather agency declared the onset of El Niño on July 4, warning its return paves the way for a likely spike in global temperatures and extreme weather conditions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/climate-crisis-2023-set-to-be-warmest-on-record-after-september-heat.html#:~:text=2023%20is%20on%20course%20to,hottest%20summer%20in%20human%20history.
Greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño conditions over the equatorial eastern Pacific are likely both playing a role in reaching new global temperature records, models show. With El Niño conditions forecast to strengthen through the end of the year, the annual temperature anomaly for 2023 could follow trends set in Summer 2023 and September 2023, breaking the previous record by a large margin.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/2023-track-become-warmest-year-record-copernicus-report/story?id=103730133
@EriIshikawa Hi Eri also 2023 has a high likelihood of being the hottest year on record. According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023 is on track to be the hottest year since at least 1940, and potentially the hottest year on record. This is due to a number of factors, including the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions, the ongoing effects of climate change, and natural climate variabili
Here are some of the evidence that suggests 2023 could be the hottest year on record:
The global average temperature in 2023 is already above the long-term average. As of October 2023, the global average temperature was 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average. This is higher than the global average temperature for any year on record.
The first eight months of 2023 were the hottest eight months on record. The average global temperature for the first eight months of 2023 was 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average. This is the highest average temperature for any eight-month period on record.
The world's eight hottest years on record have all come in the past eight years. The years 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 were all among the hottest years on record. This suggests that the world is in a period of rapid warming.
@EriIshikawa I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with the UN World Meteorological Organization's predictions, but it requires an understanding of El Niño's interaction with other climate factors (UN News, 2023). While I partially agree, noting that global mean temperatures are at record highs, El Niño is not the sole driver of these changes. Its effects vary, and no two events are alike. A more comprehensive analysis should consider the interplay between El Niño, greenhouse gases, ocean currents, and polar ice melt. Additionally, comparing past El Niño events can provide insights into 2023's potential extremes (Met Office, 2023).
Future analyses should track the longitudinal impact of El Niño in conjunction with climate change, involving sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas levels, and weather patterns. Using datasets like ERA5, which showed October 2023 having a high global temperature anomaly, can offer a more dynamic understanding of temperature trends (Met Office, 2023). In summary, while El Niño significantly influences global temperatures, a detailed statistical approach must consider the complexity of climate systems and the variability of El Niño events for a nuanced understanding of global temperature trends (OpenAI, 2023).
UN News. (2023). "2023 likely hottest year on record; further spike expected with El Niño." [Online]. Available: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1131397
Met Office. (2023). "2023 set to be tenth consecutive year at 1°C or above." [Online]. Available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/2023-global-temperature-forecast
OpenAI. (2023). ChatGPT (Nov 11 version) (Lage language model). https://chat.openai.com/ - GPT Screenshot 1.3
@AlexWilson one side effect of this that I did not anticipate is now having a negative balance due to repaying loans. I wonder how I can keep my streak alive if I can't place any more bets now.
@8 Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.
@AlexWilson Not sure, but perhaps putting in a book order to sell a share you own and then deleting that order also works (or maybe you are also prevented from doing that)?