I love prediction markets, what a great question. It should be before 2050 or 2040 but this provides room for tremendous amount of information to be collected in one place, good work.

This market is tricky because neither of those things is gonna happen so this is just not gonna resolve

@Choms agree it’s tricky but because both will happen, given "ever" infinite time everything does (within logic/physics).

@deagol ok, I meant this website will be closed before either of those things happen 😂

@Choms I propose to the site owners before closing the site to first deal with this bet by redeeming Y bettors in USD and N bettors in BTC 10,000:1 rate/share. :)

If a single exchange has a failure and btc drops below 10k but none of the other exchanges do, does that count?

I think this should be specified. Because it’s quite common in crypto in a liquidation cascade triggering such prices but not being a real market price, just a single exchange.

It says "by Coingecko price"

My bad, my brain completely omited that line.

I think that Bitcoin won't go that low ever again. I also believe in Ethereum's growth. It is an ecosystem.

What do you think?

how does this resolve if the dollar ceases to exist before bitcoin ceases to exist

>75% chance of this imho

Description says:

Will resolve [...] to NO, if the U.S. dollar collapses.

@roma what if it's not a collapse, but it's replaced by a different currency (like the US joins the euro, or Canada conquers the US and exchanges US dollars for Canadian dollars)

@JonathanRay Yeah, maybe worth clarifying

What does it resolve to if the dollar becomes backed by bitcoin?

@AlexC7640 lmao

@DavideBerweger It’s not impossible

@Alex609 what would that even mean? USD is backed by US economic and military strength. How would BTC provide that?

@deagol https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Standard_Act Like this but replace gold with btc

@Alex609 so, an utter failure, why would work with BTC in the future?

@Alex609 in any case if something as retrograde as that were to be tried, then BTCUSD would remain constant during the silly experiment, and then would resume floating as they took it down, and I see no special edge case for this market.

Can you clarify what you mean by “if the U.S. dollar collapses”? By which metric, and how big a decline and in what timeframe? Most currency traders would characterize the 12% decline in the USD index (DXY) from late September as a collapse, so a troll could argue that this should be resolved NO already, based on resolution criteria specified in the description.

What's the point of ever betting no on a market like this?

@MarcusAbramovitch I suppose that since BTC has become a gold-standard in cryptocurrencies, some currencies tying themselves to reserves of BTC/gold, and others going crypto-fiat, this is speculation of whether BTC/USD pair is going to stay the gold-standard or will something replace either of them as the default

@firstuserhere if you bet no, how can you ever win?

@MarcusAbramovitch short term trading, whenever there's a price drop, there'll be people speculating that the chances of it going below 10k USD rise, and then you make a profit and exit

NO, if the U.S. dollar collapses.

That's how NO wins.

@jack Haha interesting trading from you. Yes @firstuserhere if either USD or BTC collapses, there you win by holding NO.

Going by the year on year inflation rate for USD (i think it's about 7% for 2022?), ah well....

@Dreamingpast No, if BTC collapses then it would be a YES because the value of BTC would fall below 10k USD. If the dollar collapses then it's a NO.

@jack oh sorry. i misinterpreted what @firstuserhere said - BTC value going down to <10k USD when it is destabilized as the gold standard does indeed resolve the market as YES.

holding NO can be profitable in times where BTC price is soaring @firstuserhere , not falling