By when will Manifold be able to handle big markets on live events without disruptive technical issues?
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Plus
19
Ṁ741
Jan 1
2%
Before End of April 2024
8%
End of June 2024
11%
End of Aug 2024
17%
End of Oct 2024
62%
Other

Minor isseus aren't important for this, just major ones like most bets taking 10s to go through or most bets failing or the site going down

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Ṁ1,000
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how will we know? will one big event that doesn't have problems resolve this? what if the next crashes everything again?

We can just ask the manifold team, or check on the dev instance or something

@jacksonpolack I don't think devs or the dev instance can accurately model the actual load of an actual event.

@BrunoParga Why? I'd think it's very doable. I'd guess it's mostly the trades that are an issue, so just have N fake accounts submit M trades per second each on a market or something. Worst case, you can just have the bots open the site iin an actual browser and click stff.

bought Ṁ5 Other YES

I just bet YES on "Other" (later than Oct 2024) because most of what the Manifold team has done in the six months I've been here has been decidedly something else than fixing the issues that already exist.

To be fair, it seems they did solve the issue with unresolving unlinked MC markets. It is generally true that bugfixes are less salient than new features.

bought Ṁ40 Other YES

If James gets his artificial superintelligence on this, it'll be solved in no time