Which party will win the US presidential election X which will win popular vote?
Which party will win the US presidential election X which will win popular vote?
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130
Ṁ120kresolved Nov 7
1D
1W
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100%99.0%
Republican wins popular vote and presidency
0.6%
Democrat wins popular vote and presidency
0.3%
Democrat wins popular vote, Republican wins presidency
0.0%
Republican wins popular vote, Democrat wins presidency
N/A if a third party wins any of them.
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opened a Ṁ400 Republican wins popu... YES at 4% order6mo
GOP losing the EC advantage this election cycle feels underpriced to me @ 3%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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