Resolves to what an independent observer's opinion would be once it's clear. If it's never clear, resolves N/A. If it's ambiguous, resolves to the closest option. If anyone disputes my resoliton, moderators will resolve it. "Other" will only happen if the truth is very different from any of the options.
[first few days] If the options or criteria seem off, please provide feedback!
Based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-did-shohei-ohtani-allegedly-wire
1,000
1.00Maybe this makes me a naive dupe, but initially I was skeptical of Ohtani's version of events & after the criminal complaint I'm now basically convinced of his story. So many details in there that are consistent with him being swindled (e.g. Ippei basically confessing via txt, the endless txt history between Ohtani & Ippei that never mentions any of this, Ohtani's browser history, the fact that Ippei was buying unrelated stuff for himself, recordings of Ippei impersonating Ohtani to the bank, etc).
Obviously, none of this can conclusively prove that Ohtani didn't execute a perfect cover up of his tracks over the years. But it would be extremely strange to have an implausibly sophisticated cover up for such a bafflingly unsophisticated crime (i.e. clearly someone was losing millions from a raging gambling addiction).
I wouldn't bet this up terribly high given naturally subjective resolution, but I'd need strong new evidence to arise for me to believe either alternative option proposed above (Ohtani knew the whole time, or they were Ohtani's debts).
Example summary of the complaint that I found persuasive: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2024/4/11/24127893/shohei-ohtani-interpreter-ippei-mizuhara-guilty-plea-16-million-gambling-scandal
@Ziddletwix I'm in the same boat as you. I was initially extremely skeptical but every article I see about it convinces me more that it is exactly what they say it is. Maybe I'm gullible and 'falling for it' too, but....
Ohtani leaning pretty heavily on "he stole money from me and I never bet on anything." Would probably create a substantial amount of liability if not accurate. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39808874/ohtani-adamant-never-betting-sports-says-interpreter-stole-money