Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Mini
8
Ṁ1542027
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
this one is for 2028
Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
74% chance
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
60% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
33% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
42% chance
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
39% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2025?
87% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
42% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
25% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance