Background

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases monthly employment data through the Employment Situation Summary. Recent trends show continued job growth in several sectors, particularly in health care, government, and construction. The leisure and hospitality sector has also shown recovery momentum.

Resolution Criteria

Resolution will be based on the December 2024 Employment Situation Summary (to be released in January 2025), specifically "Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail." Each sector will resolve YES if it shows a positive seasonally adjusted change in employment from November 2024 to December 2024, NO if the change is zero or negative, and N/A if data becomes unavailable or the reporting methodology significantly changes.

I will not trade on this market myself.

Considerations

• The BLS occasionally revises previous months' data, but resolution will be based on the initial December 2024 report

• Some sectors (like Mining and Logging) typically show more volatility in monthly changes than others

• Weather events or other external factors in December could impact employment in weather-sensitive sectors like Construction and Leisure/Hospitality

• Government employment numbers can be affected by temporary hiring events like the census or changes in administrative policies