This question concerns flagship universities in the United States, as defined in this Wikipedia category (as of 10/23/2024)
Several potential factors could drive such a closure within the next decade:
Political conflict, especially in regions like the South
Disruptions from AI or alternative education models
Financial collapse or bankruptcy
Broader collapse or major restructuring of the higher education system
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1.00@traders I interpret this question to mean the entire university (ie system) closing. Notwithstanding the various challenges faced by higher education, it is extremely rare for a doctoral-granting university to close completely, especially a public one. Given the structural barriers to a flagship university system closing (e.g. many such systems are chartered in state constitutions or have special legal status because they existed before their state was admitted), I think the odds of any flagship system completely closing are low -- it is more likely that if such a system was in crisis it would be merged with other state schools to preserve its viability.
I did some quick analysis of data from https://fsapartners.ed.gov/additional-resources/reports/weekly-school-file which seems to be the primary source referred to in most discussions of college closures. The data goes back to at least 1985. I found only 25 doctoral-level schools that had completely closed (ie all campus locations closed) and none of these were public universities. Based on the names, most seemed to be liberal arts colleges or professional schools that must have had small graduate programs.
I am curious about whether there are particular schools that other traders view as under threat of closure. It seems like University of Alaska is one that has faced significant pressures recently and I'm interested if there are others that are viewed as under threat.
@jgyou This could have catastrophic consequences since med-school research accounts for a large portion of the budget of many flagships. Plus, most of these researchers are on "soft money," i.e., fully grant-funded.
McArthy era policy possibly coming down the pipe: https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/4BD2D522-2092-4246-91A5-58EEF99750BC
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-colleges-really-facing-an-enrollment-cliff/
"Even some of the nation’s most successful universities have undergone recent program closures. The Pennsylvania State University reduced employment by 10% at its regional campuses this spring as enrollment fell about 20%, even while enrollment at the flagship Penn State campus grew. Last year, West Virginia University, the state’s flagship school, announced cuts of 28 programs and elimination of 147 faculty positions. WVU’s enrollment has been more or less flat for the last five years, but is down about 16% over the last decade. The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee is closing its College of General Studies and removing 32 tenured faculty, having also seen about a 16% enrollment drop over the last decade. Most recently, St. Louis University has announced the need for large budget cuts in the face of a massive drop in international enrollment, which disproportionately contributes to tuition revenues."