New METR SOTA by EOY? | Manifold

New METR SOTA by EOY?

3

Ṁ265

Dec 31

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if any model surpasses a 50% time-horizon of 2h 42m on https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ by EOY

Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The model must be scored by end of year (not just released by end of year).

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

Does it have to be scored by the end of the year or does the model have to be released by the end of the year

@BenAybar scored

Related questions

By what date will at least one SOTA reasoning model use neuralese?

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

OpenAI releases SOTA LLM by end of year?

MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?

MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?

By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Related questions

By what date will at least one SOTA reasoning model use neuralese?

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?

OpenAI releases SOTA LLM by end of year?

By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules