Which of the following will occur before Manifold's Daily Streak Ironman concludes?
Plus
16
Ṁ47082026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
85%
Jimmy Carter passes away
80%
Nintendo’s successor to the Switch is sold in the US
78%
GPT-next is released (OpenAI's next frontier model)
48%
GTA VI is released (for North American consoles)
45%
Ammon pays at least the third place amount to all contestants
39%
Ammon requests a required bet amount (1-3 Mana)
39%
Apple releases a phone with a folding screen
39%
Apple releases a smart ring
27%
AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
20%
Manifold announce that they are going to go defunct
18%
China invades Taiwan
14%
@snazzlePop sustains a major injury or dies while climbing a mountain
5%
A room temperature superconductor is discovered (and confirmed)
The Daily Streak Ironman can be found here:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/which-candidate-would-last-the-long?r=amlt
Participants must trade at least once every 36 hours or they are eliminated from the competition. There were 12 to begin with, now after almost half a year only 3 remain.
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AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
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