This market resolves YES if one person is the President of the United States for more than 2,922 days since the ratification of the 22nd Amendment on 21 March 1947.
This market resolves NO if the YES criteria are not met before two days after Inauguration Day in 2101 (22 January 2101).
Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record for most time in office as the President of the United States. Roosevelt held the office for three full terms and died in 1945, only a few months into his fourth term. He spent a total of 4,422 days in office, putting him in 1st place. As of market creation on 3 July 2024, twelve presidents were tied for 2nd place, each having served for exactly 2,922 days. Among others these include Thomas Jefferson, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and Grover Cleveland who served two non-consecutive terms that were each 1,461 days long. George Washington is next in 14th place, having served two full terms, but only 2,865 days due to logistical problems with the first inauguration. Washington is the only president to have served two full terms, but not at least 2,922 days.
After Roosevelt's record tenure, Congress passed the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1947. It was ratified by the minimum required 3/4 of the states, thus becoming law, in 1951. The 22nd Amendment states, "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once."
Generally, American citizens understand that the president may not hold office for more than eight years, but the wording of the 22nd Amendment technically allows for cases where a president may hold office for longer. Additionally, there are possible circumstances beyond the scope of the 22nd Amendment which could result in a YES resolution.
The close date should not be extended on this market, even in the event of an alteration or repeal of the 20th Amendment.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000
1.002100 is not a leap year.
If the sitting vice president wins the 2092 election, becomes president on the day before the scheduled inauguration (e.g. if the sitting President dies), then goes on to be re-elected in 2096 and serves a full, 1460-day second term, they'll have been in office for exactly 2.922 days, not more, but they'll have fulfilled the condition in the title (more than two full terms).
1800 was also not a leap year, so John Adams had the shortest term of all Presidents who served one full term.