I just did the arbitrage here. Posting so others can do the same.

Bought the No here, investment 90M, payout 262.

On the other market, I made these purchases:
Other: invest 49, payout 266
50-60: invest 36, payout 271
40-50: invest 44, payout 267
35-40: invest 38, payout 266

Total investment: 257
Guaranteed payout: 262

It was fun to figure out how to do this right! My first guess was dumb - I just bought equal investments (90M) on yesses on the other market and on No here. Don't make my mistake. I had a 17% chance of losing 100M, if the shutdown lasted 40-50days. Instead, if you're doing this, make it so all the outcomes give you the same payout, and the investment amount will just work out (assuming the probabilities say that arbitrage is worthwhile at all).

Anyone have any good ways to calculate this better than my strategy of "just make the orders and see what happens?" A guaranteed 5 mana in 40 ish days isn't much, knowing how to calculate the expected gains seems really useful!


Update: I'm... Trying to figure out if there's a way to unroll my position, to get the gains now that this market seems more rational . But I'm getting caught up on details. (Maybe I sell my no's at a price of like, 60% probability? Since I bought them at 80% ish I should make a profit? But then I need to sell the other markets Yesses at the same time, and what if I sell those at a loss...) I might just hold till things resolve. If anyone wants some more liquidity in this market (eg, you think it's an 80% chance and you want someone betting against you that it's actually 60), help me figure out how to do this correctly!

@DannyqnOht "make it so all the outcomes give you the same payout"

What I do is to make sure the lowest payout is higher than the total amount spent, but I do it manually opening several browser tabs and having a look.

To be taken into account:

• different liquidity

• limit orders

• different costs of buying at different percentages

I also try to move the probability of the markets towards my probability.

Let’s say we have market A at 40% and B at 60%, and a range of 47% to 53% where the arbitrage would give a positive return in all cases, I would move both to 47% if my p() is low.

Just...

15 + 10 + 18 + 14 != 73. And that's including "other" (and I'm excluding 30-35)

https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/how-long-will-the-government-shutdo

Also, the market with real money says 53% chance right now:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01

How long was the previous one? It might be the same length

@MindBenderMads 35 days, and if you think it is the same length, bet no.

Does the brief funding lapse in 2024 count as a shutdown for the purpose of resolution for this market?

@SacredChicken no