Resolves YES if the result of a chess game where white starts without a queen and two rooks and both players play optimally has been proven to be a particular outcome (presumably a win for black) by 2035.
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/chess-with-queen-odds-solved-by-203
1,000
1.00I think "pawns only" odds might be solvable.
I looked at a few games and it seems that no matter which pawns white pushes, black's strategy is always to get the Queen out and get it to the back rank without touching the other pieces. This typically takes 4-5 moves, and as soon as it gets there, black has a forced mate. In 5 moves there are only 1.8 million moves for white.
If this happens it won't be using Stockfish, it will us some more specialised algorithm. Stockfish is optimised to maximise the probability of winning, not to win quickly with minimal computation.
The way to prove this would be to consider all possible moves for white, and only the most aggressive, simplifying moves for black.
At the same time, expand existing endgame table bases with a focus on games where white has no rooks or queen and black is up 19 points.