I think 1 stdev above would make sense

There does not seem to be a practical way to obtain an objective answer for the resolution of this market.

Seems to be more a manifold user meme stock than anything else.

@parhizj What do you mean "resolution"? The PERMANENT label means it can never resolve, so it's definitionally impossible to collect information sufficient to resolve, even with omniscience, whether practical or not.

As punishment for taking so long to understand this, I will be dropping your expected IQ by 4 points.

@Mira So I am correct that it is a stock then? Also since the maker is banned what will happen to everyone’s mana when it closes in 2031? Or are you going to have a mod extend closing date?

@parhizj It is a stock. And theoretically it would probably be reopened by a mod.

@parhizj It's not literally a Manifold stock, but it is convertible to a stock by admins and your trading strategy should be similar.

I won't do anything with it in 2031. I consider my Manifold points to be worthless and won't commit to filing extension requests in 7 years. I also suspect Manifold will go bust by then, so it will be moot; but if not, it's not my problem.

The maker is banned but can still not-resolve the market as is his duty.

@parhizj I'll leave an exit order for you at 60 and 70 if you want to get some of your mana back. Otherwise it'll be lost forever in a never-resolving market.

@Mira I’ve not bet … just disappointed one of the top 10 numeric markets by liquidity is a meaningless stock

@parhizj It’s more meaningful than most Manifold stocks. What value is ChudLogic or even destiny stock? At least this one gives some kind of potentially interesting signal.

@JimAusman 🤔 but what is the “ signal “ being used for?

The alpha is probably in trading the tail risks when they set up, long under 100 short above 115-120

To be fair, you have to have a very high IQ to understand Manifold. The strategies are extremely subtle, and without a solid grasp of market dynamics most of the trades will go over a typical user's head. There's also the site's rationalistic outlook, which is deftly woven into its characterisation- the philosophies often expressed draw heavily from futurist and EA writers and the LessWrong sphere, for instance. The power users understand this stuff; they have the intellectual capacity to truly appreciate the depths of these discussions, to realise that they're not just random interactions in the comments section- they say something deep about LIFE. As a consequence people who dislike Manifold truly ARE idiots- of course they wouldn't appreciate, for instance, the humour in Buttocks Cocktoasten's existential catchphrase "rationalussy," which itself is a cryptic reference to Turgenev's Russian epic Fathers and Sons. I'm smirking right now just imagining one of those addlepated simpletons scratching their heads in confusion as Marcus Abramovitch's genius trading unfolds itself on their computer screens. What fools.. how I pity them. 😂

And yes, by the way, i DO have a Manifold tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It's for the ladies' eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they're within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid 😎

@PlasmaBallin may I see it?

Are there any tests you would recommend?

The average IQ of a university graduate is 110-115.

The average iq of manifold users is 100

@GabeGarboden That’s what it’s trending towards anyway and thus what the market ought to settle to (and also the cheapest share price)

@TheBayesian limit order up at 105

@MichaelWheatley alas people are irrational and so bringing the market to the correct price provides too low/negative returns for several years

much better to profits off the volatility

Don't be fooled guys: Manifolders listen to smart people, and frequently copy their language and concepts. But like stochastic parrots, merely echoing thoughts and memorizing standard techniques for common situations doesn't make them truly intelligent.

They are outcompeted by GPT-4 in reading comprehension, and it is well-known that GPT-4 is not AGI. So, the average Manifolder must not be generally intelligent.

Put them in front of a novel problem requiring original insights, where they need to observe relevant evidence over a period of months, where they need the attention/memory to compress it into a model that makes forward prediction, where they don't have somebody spoonfeeding them already-known thought patterns, and their true lack of fluid intelligence will be revealed.

They are biological machines that happen to have a large database of cached word associations. Often it cannot even be introspected. Would a large Markov chain or table of responses be intelligent just because it has a smart-sounding response memorized? Obviously not.

Don't mistake the illusion of intelligence for intelligence.

@Mira Where is the evidence that GPT4 outperforms average manifolds reader? Where someone’s bot profiting or something?

@Mira Okay, and what does that have to do with IQ?

What happened in July to lower this market so much?

@a WvM probably? more mana available to users that didn't get it due to being better forecasters, so lots of markets have spikes from some of those users making mistakes