Government coalition following the 2024 Thuringian state election?

Mini

Ṁ5504

resolved Dec 11

ALL

100%96%

CDU+BSW+SPD

0.4%

Left+SPD+Greens (continuation)

0.4%

AfD+CDU

0.2%

AfD+BSW

0.3%

Left+CDU+SPD

0.3%

Left+SPD+BSW

0.3%

CDU+Left+SPD+Greens

0.4%

CDU+SPD

0.2%

CDU+SPD+Greens

0.1%

CDU+Left+BSW

1.5%Other

Resolves to the coalition of the next government following the 2024 Thuringian state election on September 1.

Close date might be adapted.

The order and vote numbers are not relevant for this question. For example, AfD+CDU is the same as CDU+AfD.

#Elections: World

#Germany

#German Politics

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@marktwse Resolves as YES, the coalition agreement has been signed by all parties, see e.g https://www.stern.de/news/thueringen--koalitionsvertrag-zwischen-cdu-und-bsw-sowie-spd-unterzeichnet-35302738.html

CDU has voted YES. I'm waiting for the coalition agreement to be signed by all three parties.

I mirrored the question to Metaculus.

Potential coalitions from here.

bought Ṁ1 AfD+CDU YES

More suggestions for coalitions?

@marktwse Maybe CDU+SPD or CDU+SPD+Greens, as a minority government tolerated by the Left and maybe BSW?

bought Ṁ30 CDU+Left+BSW NO

@marktwse CDU + SPD + BSW + Greens seems not too unlikely, given that it just adds BSW to the previous coalition. It would be a minority government, but all likely options are minority

@stephanw Sorry, got the tab confused, ignore what I said, Greens aren't even in parliament.

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