What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?
What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?
Plus
53
Ṁ34102040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
81%
Second Black
79%
First Woman
51%
First Asian
46%
First Hispanic
43%
First (openly) Atheist
42%
First Jewish
28%
First (openly) LGBTQ
20%
First 85 Year Old
16%
First Native
8%
First Arab
4%
First Muslim
What characteristics will be true of the US Commander in Chief before Jan 1st, 2040?
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
Suggestions:
First Othodox Christian
Third Catholic
First from a third party
Second independent
First <40 years old
First Indian
First Mormon
answered1y
First 85 Year Old
bought Ṁ10 First 85 Year Old NO11mo
Why is this one so high? Obviously it will resolve YES if Biden gets reelected, but if he loses, I don't see any reason for it to happen. I think both parties will nominate younger candidates in 2028 given how big of an issue age is in this election.
Suggestion: first President that's head of state but not head of government. (I am an optimist, I believe in improvement against all odds!)
answered1y
First 85 Year Old
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Who will be elected president in 2040?
Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040?
71% chance
Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?
48% chance
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2040?
What will be true about at least one US president elected before 2050?
Will a technocrat be elected US president by 2040?
44% chance
From today to after the presidential inauguration in 2041, will the US have at least one president who is ___?
Who will win the 2040 US Presidential elections?
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
76% chance
Who will win the 2040 United States presidential election?