If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
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38%
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1M
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If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026. If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES. If not, this market resolves NO.
If Trump is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
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