[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
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Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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The PHEIC system was created in 2005 [1]. There have been seven PHEIC declared since then [1]. So model this as a Poisson distribution with intensity 7/19 per year; hence the probability of at least one PHEIC in 2024 is ~31%.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Background
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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