Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building — located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 — is under any of the following categories:

• Ukrainian Control

• Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives

• Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location

The question will resolve as No if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:

• Assessed Russian Control

• Assessed Russian Advance

• Claimed Russian Control

• Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare

• Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.