[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks? | Manifold

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

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Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2025, an independent review commissioned by the United Nations confirms the involvement of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

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@MetaculusBot This should resolve N/A, consistent with the ambiguous resolution on the Metaculus question.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Why is this not resolved?

https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/investigation-completed-allegations-unrwa-staff-participation-7-october

Probably because of the wording:
"For the remaining nine cases, the evidence – if authenticated and corroborated – could indicate that the UNRWA staff members may have been involved in the attacks of 7 October."
This could actually mean anything.

Why is there such a big difference with Metaculus? Is there any information on whether this matter is even being investigated?

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