Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series here and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions here.

Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.*

Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.

For this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025.

If Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.