Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2050, credible sources report that the Russian Federation has placed an order for a US-made weapons system and that this order has been approved by the US Department of State, or through whatever other legal means necessary to approve American weapons sales to foreign nations present at that time. Only the order will need to placed to resolve this question as Yes; the weapons system need not actually be delivered to Russia. The weapons system must be purchased directly from the United States, not through a intermediary/third country. Credible sources reporting that the United States has approved providing weapons systems to Russia free of charge will also resolve this question as Yes. If this does not occur before the resolution date, the question resolves as No.

For the purpose of this question, the following are included in the definition of "weapons system":

• Tanks

• Armored fighting vehicles

• Towed artillery

• Self-propelled artillery

• Rocket artillery

• Surface-to-air missile systems

• Military radars

• Fighter and multi-role aircraft

• Attack/bomber aircraft

• Military helicopters

• Combat drones/UCAVs

• AWACS

• Aerial refueling aircraft

• Other aircraft intended solely for military use

• Aircraft carriers

• Naval destroyers

• Cruisers

• Frigates

• Corvettes

• Submarines

• Guided missiles/launchers

• Weapons of mass destruction

• Any ammunition or components made to be used specifically by an American-produced version of the above

Metaculus moderators may use their discretion to determine if a particular American export to Russia falls into the above categories or otherwise has no practical application outside a military setting, such that it must be considered a weapons system.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.