Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the case "Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel)" rules that Israel is not committing genocide, and then this is featured on Wikipedia's main page (for example, on the "In the News" part) within 30 days of the ruling. The official ruling date will be determined by the date of publication on the ICJ's website.

This market will resolve to "No" if, following such a ruling by the ICJ, there is no such mention of this the "In the news" section of the English Wikipedia main page within 30 days of the ruling.

This market will resolve to "N/A" if the International Court of Justice does not issue a ruling in the case "Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel)" that explicitly states Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza. This includes scenarios where the ICJ rules that Israel is committing genocide, or if the case is dismissed, or if it issues other rulings (e.g., provisional measures or advisory opinions) that do not directly address a definitive finding on the merits of "not committing genocide" in this specific contentious case.

Considerations

Inclusion in Wikipedia's "In the news" (ITN) section on the main page is determined by a consensus among editors at Wikipedia:In the news/Candidates. The primary criteria for inclusion are the quality of the updated Wikipedia article(s) related to the event and the overall significance of the developments. Stories considered for the main page must be current and of international interest. While Wikipedia is not a news service, it relies on verifiable information from reliable, independent sources to maintain its encyclopedic nature. News items are typically added with an emboldened link to the relevant updated article. The market's resolution hinges on a highly specific ruling outcome regarding the genocide charge, and any other type of ruling or advisory opinion would result in an "N/A" resolution.

• Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For this market to resolve YES, Wikipedia's main page must explicitly mention that the ICJ ruled there is no genocide. It is not sufficient for Wikipedia to mention the ruling on other aspects without specifically addressing the genocide determination.