Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?
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24%
Yes/No
37%
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No/No
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo, or the AIMO main prize resolves yes, then the AI has won a gold medal on the IMO.
The source for whether a problem is a combinatorics problem will be Evan Chen. https://web.evanchen.cc/upload/MOHS-hardness.pdf
I will not bet on this market. Market criteria may be adjusted for a short term.
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Is there any particular reason to prefer Evan Chen’s MOHS document over shortlist categories? There’s a chance Evan doesn’t upload MOHS in 2025, or it might take a very long time.
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