How many of the people Trump announces he will nominate do not ultimately serve in that role?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ6441
2026
1%
Zero: everyone will serve
98.1%
One or more
98%
Two or more
80%
Three or more
75%
Four or more
36%
Five or more
33%
Six or more

Market will resolve based on the first person to serve in a role for which Trump has announced his planned nominee. That is, if in 2024 Rubio announces he would prefer not to be Sec’y of State in order to spend more time with his beloved yaks, but he ends up as Sec’y of State in 2027, he would count for this. If he somehow ends up Sec’y of the Interior instead, that would also count. (As two, actually, since it would displace another announcee.)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ250 One or more YES

@njmkw - at this point I think zero can be resolved no and 1 or more can be resolved yes

@AIC It seems distantly possible, though very unlikely, that Gaetz will still serve as AG, so I’m going to wait until people are confirmed or recess appointmented.

@njmkw - totally fair!