Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
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Ṁ19782026
18%
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I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes. I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
I may at my discretion take into consideration non‐public evidence I receive prior to market close. However, the purported identification itself must be public.
If the market resolves YES, I will state whom I believe to be Satoshi.
I will not bet on this market.
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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