Resolution by majority of credible media reports at market expiry as judged by me; I won't trade on my own answers.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If most information remains uncertain at the original market expiry date (Jan 12, 2026), the deadline will be extended for questions that remain uncertain.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of resolving whether a victim was specifically targeted, a victim is defined as someone who was physically harmed in the attack.
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Deadliest shooting: Defined as occurring in the US (current 2025 record: 7 deaths).
The creator is waiting for further hospital discharges to rule out the possibility of the death count exceeding this record before resolving.
1,000
1.00At the suggestion of folks in the comments, I'm going to close out:
- FBI asks the public for tips (this happened on Monday)
- At least one death, (this happened immediately)
- Caught by the 16th (this time window passed yesterday)
I'll leave open the higher-death-count ones until I see a report the victims are out of the hospital, but those could also resolve soon.
@nonnihil Per https://www.browndailyherald.com/article/2025/12/shooting-live-updates there are now only six victims still hospitalized, so I am going to resolve the 10 and 20 death counts NO.
@DanzoAlerantos
(1) "The deadliest shooting" could mean just in the US, rather than anywhere in the world;
(2) According the gun violence network, the deadliest shooting in the US in 2025 killed just 7 people;
(3) As of this afternoon six people remain hospitalized, some still in critical condition;
(4) If everyone currently hospitalized died, that would be 8 people.
So I'm waiting until another person is released from hospital (I assume that's tomorrow-ish).
It's an arbitrary line, but prudence requires that I draw it somewhere.
@TiredCliche this can resolve YES:
https://x.com/FBI/status/2001366950027346045?s=20
https://abcnews.go.com/US/brown-university-shooting-manhunt-continues-fbi-offers-reward/story?id=128443272
Some more updates here, including the video of the current suspect, relevant to several of these answers.
https://www.wpri.com/news/local-news/providence/brown-university-reports-active-shooter/ The suspect in custody has been released.
Oh boy. For once I'm happy I'm not trading on this market: I don't enjoy roller-coasters.
If by some misfortune most everything is still in the air at market expiry (Jan 12) I will extend the deadline on questions that remain uncertain.
@JeromeHPowell I can't make head or tail of the liquidity subsidy stuff. I'll add some because you seem to know what you are talking about but... Manifold couldn't create stronger "this is a scam" vibes around liquidity subsidy if they tried.
@nonnihil I got screwed over just a few days ago https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-should-do-anything-other-t#tlOy5Ipu
@nonnihil This is the context to Jerome's comment above: https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-should-do-anything-other-t#tlOy5Ipu
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/us/benjamin-erickson-brown-university-shooting
Yet more updates on the suspect in custody, painting a bit more of a picture here...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/brown-university-shooting-live-updates-rcna249097/rcrd94445?canonicalCard=true
The current suspect has been identified.
For the people that keep betting the antisemitism option up to 80%, there's 1000 mana on NO that you can gobble up at 50% (lasts one hour).
@Balasar I'm not looking forward to sussing out whether prediction-holders mean that option to capture a motivation of the shooter in favor of antisemitism or a motive against the perceived antisemitism of Brown econ students, or both, so I'm hoping for my own sake that no relationship to antisemitism exists at all.
So anyway whoever is bidding that option up... no offense, but I'm kinda really hoping you lose.