If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound? | Manifold

If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound?

Mini

10

Ṁ416

2069

900

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Another Collatz market for fun now that numeric markets are back. Rounded to nearest integer, I guess? Resolves N/A if the conjecture is true, or if the disproof somehow indicates that we'll never find it. According to Wikipedia:

As of 2020, the conjecture has been checked by computer for all starting values up to 2^68 ≈ 2.95×10^20. All initial values tested so far eventually end in the repeating cycle (4; 2; 1) of period 3.[13]

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I left almost all the money on the table, knock yourself out betting it up

@noumena Seems like the problem is that if it's big we'll never find it; though there are problems where very large counterexamples have been found by math-people rather than CS people

@SeraphinaNix ASI has entered the chat

predicts HIGHER 1y

@ShadowyZephyr what does this mean

@SeraphinaNix I'm basically saying artificial superintelligence much smarter than any human might be able to prove the conjecture true or false in the future, so it's possible that an extremely large counterexample could be found in that way.

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