Resolves Yes if any U.S. president or other national-level political actor invokes authority granted under the TikTok bill or any broadly similar legislation to force a sale or shutdown of Twitter. “Broadly similar” means any legislation understood by politically well-informed Americans to be aimed at curtailing specifically TikTok. Statements of bill sponsors to media or in Congress will be considered dispositive evidence in favor of similarity, but are not required.

Resolves No by default if this does not happen by Inauguration Day 2029.

Twitter means the product reasonable people understand to be Twitter and/or its corporate parent. The U.S. is fairly unambiguous. On the current state of the legislation, the actor responsible for invocation would be the President, but if this authority is delegated or moved around in future versions of the legislation any actor of any rank who speaks for the U.S. under the law and has actual authority to force a sale counts as Yes.

Any official attempt to invoke the law counts as a Yes, without regards to future backtracking, judicial review, or similar. Political acts in the U.S. are well-documented; the consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours should be sufficient to judge whether Yes was triggered. A “trial balloon” or threat does not cause a Yes; there must be an actual act to invoke authority under the law.

This market tracks a Twitter charity wager between patio11 and @amasad but resolution is based on ground truth rather than the resolution of that wager.

https://x.com/patio11/status/1772432241437647120?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ