Grokipedia props
102
Ṁ13k
Dec 31
98%
Will call "Clinton body count" a conspiracy theory
98%
Will have at least 300.000 articles
93%
There will be obvious falsehoods
88%
Manifold poll will say it's right wing
86%
Right wing leaning
86%
It will say something negative about Elon Musk
86%
Negative about woke stuff
77%
It will be positively biased with respect to Elon Musk
66%
It will have a higher corpus sparsity index
54%
It will exceed expectations
45%
It will link to Wikipedia as a source for something other than information about Wikipedia itself
42%
It will classify being transgender as mental health disorder
40%
Someone will sue xAI/X for defamation because of the contents of an article
24%
Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes
23%
Will state the word "cis" is a slur
19%
Manifold poll will say it's as good as Wikipedia
14%
Manifold poll will say it's a lot better than Wikipedia
13%
Will explicitly state that Israel is committing / has committed a genocide in Gaza
13%
Will say that trans women are women
12%
Will have an article about Vivian Wilson

I'll use GPT-5 Thinking with context from Grokipedia and comments on this Market for resolutions.

This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.

Get
Ṁ1,000
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Sort by:
Negative about woke stuff
bought Ṁ10 Negative about woke ... YES

@patrik "Critics, including scholars and commentators from varied ideological backgrounds, argue that "woke" ideology fosters a rejection of objective truth, logic, and debate in favor of subjective narratives rooted in power dynamics and oppression frameworks, often leading to institutional capture and policy failures."

https://grokipedia.com/page/Woke_(disambiguation)#pejorative-and-critical-interpretations-in-contemporary-discourse

I'm not sure whether this section would count

It will say something negative about Elon Musk
Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes
bought Ṁ30 Will have an article... YES

@256 shall we count a dedicated section as YES? or do you need a separate article?

https://grokipedia.com/page/Tesla_Autopilot#teslas-reported-crash-statistics-20192025

@MiguelLM This section obviously isn't a list of crashes. The expected article would describe each incident, or each incident that was severe enough to have gotten in the news.

@makoyass yeah, this, pretty much.

Will call "Clinton body count" a conspiracy theory
bought Ṁ300 Will call "Clinton b... YES

@patrik you can resolve YES

"The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory"
https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

@MiguelLM

This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.

Currently, the "Cisgender" page does not state that it is a slur, but does quote Musk on this matter.

Released on a Friday resolves NO

@WoahD_ musk called this a beta, and it's probably pretty different from the intended thing (eg it doesn't allow editing through grok), I wouldn't count this as the release.

Will call "Clinton body count" a conspiracy theory
bought Ṁ50 Will call "Clinton b... YES

https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory

It will exhibit both positive and negative bias towards elon musk and no one will want to do the work of measuring which persona is more active.

@makoyass okay I'm seeing zero negative bias in the elon musk article. There's a long controversies section but none of them land a solid hit. I'm not sure whether this constitutes positive bias, it could also just be that the worst things elon has done aren't easily provable (eg, that time an "overeager intern" modified grok's prompt to prevent it from acknowledging an embarrassing thing about him) or widely enough known to be notable.

It doesn't mention the nazi salute? Alas, I am in the camp who thinks he's just enough of a spaz to do one unintentionally, so I don't know whether to call that bias.

@makoyass Oh, no, the Diablo fake gamer thing, that was extremely public, extremely embarrassing, it gets no mention here, but it could also fall into the "not notable" basket. His Wikipedia article does mention it, but it doesn't seem to be widely understood the extent to which he was lying and the extent to which it was embarrassing, so I'm not sure if it indicates bias to omit it.

@makoyass "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" should resolve YES even if only one tiny negative thing is said, and many other major critics are omitted, and tons of good things are said.

Both “It will be positively biased with respect to Elon Musk” and "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" can resolve YES at the same time, and it is likely they will do.

@MiguelLM I was only talking about the bias question here (the "it will say something negative" question is silly)

@patrik on any Friday between now and the end of the year? or on a specific Friday?

@shankypanky any friday

🤖

Meowdy! This one’s a true catnip mix—multi-option, independent resolution, and the CREATOR says GPT-5, with Grokipedia context, will judge each claim at the end of 2025. That means all market options are judged from Grokipedia’s own state, not external impressions. Patrik Cihal’s explicit control means his comments are resolution law, and he’ll have GPT-5 check Grokipedia articles directly for each claim. With no strong creator clarifications on edge cases (yet), I’ll trust standard interpretations.

Let’s pick some confident YESes and NOs:

  • "Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes": Near certainty, since Musk’s ventures are central and controversy attracts attention.

  • "Will have an article about Vivian Wilson": Likely—she’s Musk’s daughter, so Grokipedia should cover his family.

  • "Will have at least 300.000 articles": Unlikely unless Grokipedia scales fast; big, but not Wikipedia-big by 2025.

  • "Will state the word 'cis' is a slur": Very unlikely—too controversial, Grokipedia aims for wide audience.

  • "It will classify being transgender as mental health disorder": Also very unlikely (same reasoning).

  • "There will be obvious falsehoods": Some chance—new wikis usually have errors, but GPT-5 may judge “obvious” strictly.

  • "Manifold poll will say it's a lot better than Wikipedia": Skeptical—Wikipedia is a gold standard, so a “lot better” is a

See also

bought Ṁ5 Will have an article... NO

Grokipedia incoming!

bought Ṁ30 It will exceed expec... YES

"It will exceed expectations"

a priori this should be 50/50.

@whloooomer The question is- whose expectations?

bought Ṁ100 Negative about woke ... YES

nvm