I'll use GPT-5 Thinking with context from Grokipedia and comments on this Market for resolutions.
This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.
@patrik "Critics, including scholars and commentators from varied ideological backgrounds, argue that "woke" ideology fosters a rejection of objective truth, logic, and debate in favor of subjective narratives rooted in power dynamics and oppression frameworks, often leading to institutional capture and policy failures."
https://grokipedia.com/page/Woke_(disambiguation)#pejorative-and-critical-interpretations-in-contemporary-discourse
I'm not sure whether this section would count
@256 shall we count a dedicated section as YES? or do you need a separate article?
https://grokipedia.com/page/Tesla_Autopilot#teslas-reported-crash-statistics-20192025
@MiguelLM This section obviously isn't a list of crashes. The expected article would describe each incident, or each incident that was severe enough to have gotten in the news.
@patrik you can resolve YES
"The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory"
https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count
@WoahD_ musk called this a beta, and it's probably pretty different from the intended thing (eg it doesn't allow editing through grok), I wouldn't count this as the release.
https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count
The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory
@makoyass okay I'm seeing zero negative bias in the elon musk article. There's a long controversies section but none of them land a solid hit. I'm not sure whether this constitutes positive bias, it could also just be that the worst things elon has done aren't easily provable (eg, that time an "overeager intern" modified grok's prompt to prevent it from acknowledging an embarrassing thing about him) or widely enough known to be notable.
It doesn't mention the nazi salute? Alas, I am in the camp who thinks he's just enough of a spaz to do one unintentionally, so I don't know whether to call that bias.
@makoyass Oh, no, the Diablo fake gamer thing, that was extremely public, extremely embarrassing, it gets no mention here, but it could also fall into the "not notable" basket. His Wikipedia article does mention it, but it doesn't seem to be widely understood the extent to which he was lying and the extent to which it was embarrassing, so I'm not sure if it indicates bias to omit it.
@makoyass "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" should resolve YES even if only one tiny negative thing is said, and many other major critics are omitted, and tons of good things are said.
Both “It will be positively biased with respect to Elon Musk” and "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" can resolve YES at the same time, and it is likely they will do.
@MiguelLM I was only talking about the bias question here (the "it will say something negative" question is silly)
Meowdy! This one’s a true catnip mix—multi-option, independent resolution, and the CREATOR says GPT-5, with Grokipedia context, will judge each claim at the end of 2025. That means all market options are judged from Grokipedia’s own state, not external impressions. Patrik Cihal’s explicit control means his comments are resolution law, and he’ll have GPT-5 check Grokipedia articles directly for each claim. With no strong creator clarifications on edge cases (yet), I’ll trust standard interpretations.
Let’s pick some confident YESes and NOs:
"Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes": Near certainty, since Musk’s ventures are central and controversy attracts attention.
"Will have an article about Vivian Wilson": Likely—she’s Musk’s daughter, so Grokipedia should cover his family.
"Will have at least 300.000 articles": Unlikely unless Grokipedia scales fast; big, but not Wikipedia-big by 2025.
"Will state the word 'cis' is a slur": Very unlikely—too controversial, Grokipedia aims for wide audience.
"It will classify being transgender as mental health disorder": Also very unlikely (same reasoning).
"There will be obvious falsehoods": Some chance—new wikis usually have errors, but GPT-5 may judge “obvious” strictly.
"Manifold poll will say it's a lot better than Wikipedia": Skeptical—Wikipedia is a gold standard, so a “lot better” is a
nvm