Resolves based on who holds the office of President of the United States on January 21, 2037.
If the United States ceases to exist or drastically changes its political system, this resolves based on whoever holds the highest office of whatever nation controls present-day Washington, D.C..
1,000
1.00The 2036 election is three presidential elections after the 2024 election. Looking at historical data, how often are Presidential ticket nominees still close to the presidency after at least that long?
Richard Nixon, elected VP in 1952 and 1956, Presidential candidate in 1960 (lost) and in 1968 and 1972 (won).
Bob Dole, elected VP in 1976, Presidential candidate in 1996, lost.
George H. W. Bush, elected VP in 1980, elected President in 1988, Republican nominee in 1992, lost.
Joe Biden, elected VP in 2008, elected President in 2020.
Five primary-succeeding attempts after 12+ years, including three victories (two if we don't count Nixon's separately) and two that lost in the general. There were 18 elections and roughly 40 (?) presidential or vice presidential candidates over that span of time. Notably, all who made attempts that passed the primaries were those who had been elected VP.
Given this, and the fact that past VPs Biden, Cheney, and Gore are not young enough to still be active then, I'd say there's about a ~14% chance that the President in 2037 will either be Harris, Pence, or whoever Trump picks as his VP if they win in 2024 (currently most likely Tim Scott or Kristi Noem, according to the markets).
@UnspecifiedPerson I find this analysis dubious, owing to the small sample size, the questionable logic of assuming that the non-viability of older VPs significantly increases the odds of newer ones, and the failure to account for subjective factors such as Harris's and Pence's acute lack of charisma.
@UnspecifiedPerson Not to mention that all of those examples took place before Trump blew the door open to candidates with unconventional backgrounds or even no political or management experience whatsoever.
@HarrisonNathan Do you make money or are you just getting back your own liquidity contribution getting them down to priors? I don’t want to be antisocial here
@simoj The gimmick is that I can add answers for very cheap, as I own the great majority of the "Other" stake. It costs 25 mana to make an answer and then I get 20-22 mana back by immediately selling the answer down to zero. The investment is made back if even one person buys the answer (5 mana per unique trader) and if more people do, that's profit.
But that's okay, I've had my fill of that game.
@simoj My last one was not very competitive.
Currently I'm in "Apocalyptic Demigods" but that sounds more intimidating than it probably is.
@HarrisonNathan The name is just alphabetical. Yeah not sure there’s much point except pride at the Masters level
Hmm, 2037 is 13 years away. Looking at what the last few American presidents did 13 years before their inauguration, in reverse chronological order:
In 2008 (13 years before 2021), Joe Biden was a senator.
In 2004 (13 years before 2017), Donald Trump was a businessman (apparently a billionaire?).
In 1996 (13 years before 2009), Barack Obama was an attorney (?!), just on the verge of becoming a senator.
In 1988 (13 years before 2001), George W. Bush was also a businessman, the owner of "Arbusto Energy" (evidently a small company, since I'd never heard of it, and it also merged into another company only 7 years in).
In 1980 (13 years before 1993), Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas.
In 1976 (13 years before 1989), George H. W. Bush was the newest Director of Central Intelligence, having previously just been demoted as the chief diplomat to China.
So it looks like, with respect to 2024 careers, it looks like the 2037 president's maybe a little more likely than half to be a medium-ranking politician (eg a senator, state governor, or diplomat), with the other possibilities being either mediocre businessmen and/or absolute randos.
I was intrigued by this so I decided to double the length of your list!
In 1968 (13 years before 1981), Ronald Reagan was governor of California, actually — not really an actor anymore.
In 1964 (13 years before 1977), Jimmy Carter was a Georgia state senator.
In 1961 (13 years before 1974), Gerald Ford was a US representative, as he had been for twelve years.
In 1956 (13 years before 1969), Richard Nixon was the vice president.
In 1950 (13 years before 1963), Lyndon B. Johnson was a senator, very recently elected.
In 1948 (13 years before 1961), John F. Kennedy was a US representative, very recently elected.
also interesting: in 1881, Grover Cleveland was just a random sheriff / lawyer from Buffalo, New York. Then in 1882, he became mayor of Buffalo; in 1883, governor of New York; then he won the 1884 presidential election.