This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market:

• A “fully driverless taxi service” means any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—either onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation.

• A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention only, but:

  • No person may be seated in the driver’s seat.

  • No person may actively steer, accelerate, brake, or otherwise control the vehicle during the trip under normal operation.

• The launch must be open to the public, not limited to:

  • Tesla employees,

  • invite-only participants,

  • closed beta testers, or

  • factory self-delivery programs.

• Exclusions:

  • Regulatory approvals, public demonstrations, or prototype announcements without public ridership will notcount.

  • Release of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to private owners for personal use will not qualify.

  • Programs restricted to non-commercial or non-public use will not qualify.

Sources for resolution will include official Tesla press releases, statements by Tesla executives (such as Elon Musk), credible reporting by major media outlets, and any publicly verifiable evidence demonstrating that qualifying service has commenced.