Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve based on the Bitcoin price achieved at any point from market creation to the end of 2025 (December 16, 2024, 01:16 PT to December 31, 2025, 23:59 PT).
Price Source:
The primary resolution source will be Coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com), using the daily high/low price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
Individual Option Resolution:
• Each option will be resolved individually as soon as Bitcoin reaches that price level.
• If Bitcoin hits multiple price levels, multiple options can resolve YES.
• Options will resolve to YES immediately when their price level is reached, rather than waiting for the final resolution date.
Additional Notes:
• The price must be recorded as the high/low of any day, even if briefly achieved.
• Price figures are rounded to the nearest full dollar (e.g., $199,999.50 rounds up to $200,000).
• If Coinbase data becomes unavailable or unreliable, alternative credible sources such as Kraken, Binance, or Coingecko will be used for verification.
• If multiple sources are used, the consensus price will determine the outcome.
1,000
1.00I'm sort of doubtful BTC will drop below 90k - it's already gone back up to 97k, and it should stay relatively stable around 100k.
@Bayesian Honestly I don't want to overspend too much - EOY '24 taught me that BTC is still way more volatile than I know, dropping from 108k to 91k - so I'm gonna just leave it as I have it now. I think I put in the right amount of mana: enough to make a quick buck, but not so much that I can't stomach losing it.
@predyx_markets Problem is between the ears, not in the eyes 🤣 (you see what you expect, one of the common biases)
@predyx_markets Just to clarify the "using the daily high price" criteria as stated in the description:
• The price must be recorded as the high of any day, even if briefly achieved.
So, the price could hit 90k or lower, but if the high of that same day is still >90k (even if briefly achieved), that 90k answer would still not resolve, correct? Same with all lower answers: 80k, 70k, etc. Or am I misreading something?
@predyx_markets Another question, perhaps related. Suppose the price closes 2024 over 110k, say 113k, and then it never revisits 110k during all of 2025, that is, it might dip momentarily below, but the high of every single day of 2025 is always >110k, then that 110k answer would resolve NO at the end of 2025, right?
I realize this is perhaps a too literal reading of the criteria and probably not in the spirit of the market, but it'd be best clarified early on. Thanks.
@deagol "The price must be recorded as the high of any day, even if briefly achieved." - I guess the better wording would be "high/low". What do you suggest?
@predyx_markets and the other issue could be dealt with by allowing 2024 prices to resolve options, what do you think?
@predyx_markets this part:
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve based on the Bitcoin price achieved at any point during 2025 (January 1, 2025, 00:00 UTC to December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC).
Price Source:
The primary resolution source will be Coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com), using the daily high price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
Change to:
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve based on the Bitcoin price achieved at any point from market creation to the end of 2025 (December 16, 2024, 09:16 UTC to December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC).
Price Source:
The primary resolution source will be Coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com), using the daily high/low price for Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
And the title: "What price will Bitcoin hit before EoY 2025"