Resolves yes if a majority (so at least 3) of the bets from this post (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3) resolve towards a fast AGI timeline.
Markets for each of the bets:
#1 (Yes is fast): https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
#2 (Yes is fast): https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
#3 (Yes is fast): https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
#4 (Yes is fast): https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
#5 (No is fast): https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/a-topthree-ai-lab-delays-a-frontier
1,000
1.00@TheAllMemeingEye Haha yeah, that association crossed my mind as well when I was writing it. And honestly, it feels like we are not thaaaat far off from a reality where a dating app makes AGI predictions 🤷