(ran out of mana, will be adding more options between 2024-2060 as I get more)

I'm going to be totally open about my finances, and y'all can tell me when I'll retire. I'm gonna be spending most of my mana on markets about personal finances, if that interests you give me a follow :) If people have good advice, I'll buy a bunch of mana to give out as thanks.

This is a bit of an experiment in personal finance and transparency, let's see if it works!

how does this resolve?

At the end of each year, if I don't have enough saved up to retire, that year will resolve no. And the moment I do have enough to retire, that year and all future years will resolve yes.

For the purposes of this market, I've retired the moment I'm in a financial position where:

1. I can own and maintain house valued at 2M in 2023 dollars.

2. I can (in expectation) endlessly fund a lifestyle that would typically cost 80K a year in 2023 dollars with <1 hour of work a week.

Once that happens I have "retired" for the purposes of this market, even if I continue working. This rule hopefully makes it easier to calculate projections. If I make some crazy life change like becoming a monk and release myself of all worldly possessions, I'll resolve this N/A.

about me

Hello! I'm riggy, I'm currently an L4 software engineer at Google living in the SF bay area. My life goal is to retire early and want to know if I'm on the right path.

I have some crazy spreadsheets that model my finances month-by-month to figure out exactly when I can retire, and I want to see if Manifold can help me optimize them. My long term plans at the moment are to get my finances and career figured out, look at buying a house (although that'll take a while because bay area housing prices are 🤮), and then make enough money to retire.

No plans for kids at the moment, if that changes I'll track how much has been spent raising them and offset my savings calculations by that amount. So no matter what you're betting on when no-kids-riggy would have been able to retire. Other unexpected life decisions may get a similar treatment.

2024 finances

These numbers are all pre-tax, and are expected totals for 2024:

Bonus and stock comp are performance based, I tend to get average ratings (perf CME / grad S). If you want to see more about Google's compensation (or any tech company really) levels.fyi is public and wonderful.

expenses

I spend a fair amount, I tend to optimize my income more than my expenses. My projections show that I'd have to live pretty miserably for it to move retirement more than a few months, so I'm not planning on reducing these much. Numbers here are projected totals for all of 2024. Some expenses are split with my partner, shown below is my share (70%).

net worth

I have a few sources of net worth, here's the totals, EOY 2024 is the projected amount.

career

I graduated in 2022 with a bachelors in comp sci from a mid-tier tech oriented college, and picked up some ML experience along the way. I also founded a startup that is still going strong. Although I left a while back, I still own a few percent. It's a pretty small company with ~10 employees and no VC funding so liquidity events are rare.

After graduation I joined Google as an L3. My work there is mostly with data analysis and managing pipelines that process data at the petabyte scale. I have a pretty good relationship with my manager who recently helped me get promoted, hoping to make L5 in 2-3 years 🤞. At the moment I'm also looking into some ML stuff to see if that's a direction I can go in.

Sorry if this is a lot! If you think it's too much personal information, you should bet on my other market: /riggy/will-it-be-a-bad-idea-to-disclose-m

But if you have any questions lmk! I love to talk about this stuff.