Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• A person with documented net worth of $1 billion or more (as verified by Forbes, Bloomberg, or other reputable wealth tracking sources) is arrested

• The arrest violated a broad interpretation of the billionaire's freedom of expression.

• The arrest occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET

The market will resolve NO if:

• No qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline

Considerations

• The explicit purpose of the arrest does not have to be anti-freedom of expression, but if it is, this market will resolve YES. If it is not, but there is substantial evidence, as reported by a majority of major news sources, that the intention of the arrest was to quell free expression, this market will resolve YES.

• If an arrest occurs, but there is no consensus among major news sources whether it was for free speech issues

• Civil lawsuits or fines related to speech do not count as arrests.

• I will not trade in the market.

Examples:

• Pavel Durov's 2024 arrest would make this market resolve YES.

  • His arrest was related to the content/speech allowed on Telegram.

• Jimmy Lai's 2020 arrest would make this market resolve YES.

  • Demonstrations are an exercise of freedom of expression. Even if the direct reason for his arrest was not free speech related, I think it is clear that his arrest was primarily due to past anti-China rhetoric, which is free-speech.

• Donald Trump's 2023 arrest for racketeering would NOT make this market resolve YES.

  • Although Trump's racketeering involved speech, the primary cause of the arrest was the potential results of the speech. Additionally, there is no consensus that this arrest primarily occurred because of Trump's political life.

• If a billionaire were arrested for performing a gesture eerily similar to a certain salute, this market would resolve YES.