Stock-to-flow Bitcoin model: This is a price prediction model where the price is predicted based on how much Bitcoin already produced (stock) and the speed at which it's being produced (flow). Detailed explanation here.

Break: for this market, the model will be considered broken if the price goes outside of the 2 standard deviations band of the model (light blue band on the chart below).

Note, that this happend before, for example in 2018. But previous breaks do not count for this market.

Resolves YES: if it's visible* in the 2-year detail chart that the price went outside the 2nd band.

* A red pixel of the chart has a neighbouring white pixel at the left or right side.

Resolves NO: if conditions for YES are not met before close.

Resolves N/A: if the website above that posts the charts stop working, and I fail to find a good replacement for the source of information.