Will there be a celebrity scandal based on a video that was later shown to be an AI Deepfake in 2024?

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Deepfake technology is advancing, and recent posts from Argil.AI claims videos can be generated in a matter of minutes/clicks:

The output is still not perfect but if it's as easy to create these videos as Argil.AI claims, we're likely not far from a lot of deepfake drama.

This market resolves for a (non-political) celebrity scandal or drama due to a video later proven to be a deepfake. The video should be at least 30 seconds long, widely circulated by corporate media outlets, and accepted as being genuine. Mainstream celebrities with a wikipedia page, as a baseline.

If the video is reliably proven to be AI-generated - not speculation/theory in the general population - in 2024, resolves Yes. If a video circulates in 2024 but the proof does not come before the year ends, resolves No even if it's later shown to be a deepfake. "Scandal" or "drama" is somewhat subjective, but there must be a negative impact on the celebrity specifically because of the content of the video.

(tbc: the video does not need to be made with Argil.AI technology - any AI deepfake counts)

#AI

#‍ Celebrities

#Deepfakes

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It's the "accepted as being genuine" that will be a tough bar to clear. There are enough skeptical people, and corporate media outlets are good enough at fact-checking, that I think any scandalous deepfake will be immediately suspected.

I wonder if the converse is more likely: That a celebrity will claim a scandalous video to be a deepfake even if it's not. I tried to make a market to capture this probability for 2024:

Also I found a market which has a similar kind of idea for Trump in particular:

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/08/1174132413/people-are-trying-to-claim-real-videos-are-deepfakes-the-courts-are-not-amused

"In fact, Pfefferkorn thinks as AI technology proliferates, it's more likely that courts will confront accusations of fakery against real evidence than attempts to introduce fake evidence."

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