It has been speculated by various parties that it may be immensely profitable for the former president of the United States of America, Mr. Donald John Trump, to cash out on various prediction markets by manipulating markets related to his election campaign.
In this market, we ask the question of whether the Wharton Alumni would join Manifold Markets as a user in the next 2 years and some change. The market would require official confirmation from the staff prior to resolving as a "YES" resolution.
Mr. Trump's ban from various social media sites has diminished his tremendous ability to shape social events. As such, he may be in search of new ventures and places to express his thoughts, and it seems to us that Manifold might just be such a place.
1,000
1.00@MaybeNotDepends I’d happily bet at 0.001% odds if you’re interested - M$1 to you if he doesn’t, M$100,000 to me if he does?
@Conflux (personally, I agree it’s unlikely but think there are scenarios where Manifold gets really, really big - my probability of Trump joining by end of ‘25 is closer to 0.5%)
We would like to credit @Mira's comment in the #market-discussion channel on the Manifold Markets discord server for an inspiration for this prediction market.