A US citizen moved and held in El Salvador against a court order for at least seven days during Trump's term?
14
Ṁ462
2029
15%
chance
  • moved by the government

  • the seven days start when there is a court order asking the government to at least facilitate their return (i.e. wording at least as strong as that in the SCOTUS ruling concerning Abrego Garcia)

  • does not need to be SCOTUS ruling, lower court is fine

  • count resets when the order is stayed


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Kilmar_Abrego_Garcia

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Citizenship Requirement:

    • The individual must be a US citizen at the time of arrival in El Salvador.

    • Cases involving changes in citizenship status (such as denaturalization) will be addressed in a separate market.

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Counter Start Clarification:

    • Scenario Specific: In cases where a restraining order is in place and a subsequent return order is issued after rendition, the counting period of seven days begins upon arrival in El Salvador.

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What if there is a court order restraining them in the first place but they send them anyway and there is a further order for their return later. Wouldn't the counter start immediately as the rendition was against court restraint (or whatever the proper legalese for it is), or is the beef the return order rather than the original rendition?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen In this case the count starts when they arrive in El Salvador.

Do they need to be a citizen at the time of arrival in El Salvador? Some citizens can be denaturalized.

@LoganTurner Interesting question. I think for this market it makes sense to require they have to be citizens at the time of arrival, but a separate question will be useful to handle the whole picture.

@skibidist This is the main reason i'm not betting this market up.