Aren't people underestimating how much easier such mission is than landing on the Moon?

https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

46% chance.

@lukres Would it be easier? It would be a very long trip, longer than any human has spent in space before.

@BoltonBailey It would not be longer, actually. The missions planned in 1960s would have taken between 360 and 400 days, which is the same as some of the longest stays on ISS and Mir.

In contrast to Lunar landing, a Venus flyby mission could be launched on a free return trajectory such that it would return to Earth orbit without any further propulsion.

@lukres but why would we do it though

@lukres That much time outside the Earth's magnetosphere is a lot more dangerous than a year-long trip to low Earth orbit.

@Tomoffer one possibility would be India or China doing it for public relations/propaganda reasons

@lukres How close a flyby counts as a hyperbolic orbit? Is it that it has to pass within Venus' sphere of influence?

@BoltonBailey Your proposed definition looks like a good one, unless it implies results that would contradict the spirit of the market.. Whenever I try to define it quantitatively, I run into special cases.

The spirit is such that any Venus gravity assist or intentional flyby (such that is prominently included in mission planning) should count.

This is what I want to see, ideally (from 1967 mission planning):